How to estimate when a poker tournament will finish
How to estimate when a poker tournament will end
If you have followed my writing over the years you’ll know I get a bee in my bonnet about tournament length. I hate it when a tournament is as well extended or doesn’t respect the schedule of recreational players. Specially when I believe a tournament may possibly last till midnight but it goes on till 6AM.
Quite not too long ago some operators have been putting estimates on how extended they thing a tournament will final in their lobby, which actually solves this difficulty for me. However, I was at a reside occasion at the weekend and was contemplating no matter whether I could play a side event prior to my very early flight the subsequent morning.
Fortunately for me an old tournament director friend was around to answer a query that I had been wondering about for years – how do they accurately estimate when a tournament will end? With the exception of bracelet events that occasionally are a bit much more robust schedule wise, most reside tournaments end not too late on the final scheduled day.
It turns out there is a formula for predicting when a tournament will finish.
A combined one hundred big blinds
That formula is basically when the complete field of the tournament is down to 100 large blinds collectively. I was informed that unless the remaining players are especially tight, you can reliably use this to estimate when the event ends, give or take a blind level.
I tested this out looking at each on the web and live tournaments that have concluded and it holds up. For example, the WSOP Millionaire Maker this year. It started with 25,000 chips per player and five,330 players. That is a total of 133,250,000 chips in play, which if we split that into one hundred massive blinds it would be on typical ending with the big blind as close to 1,332,500 as possible. That isn’t really one particular of the blind levels, but the event ended with blinds at 500,000/1,000,000 which is essentially 1 level earlier.
Among the numerous tests I did, I tried it also on last weekend’s Sunday Million. That had eight,653 entries every of whom started with 10,000 chips. That is 86,530,000 chips in play and if we split that into 100 big blinds it makes the final blind level typical to a massive blind of 865,300. That occasion also ended with the massive blind at 1,000,000 which again is quite close, this time it ended one level later.
Look to the guarantee for guidance
As you can see this is not a difficult science and clearly some aspects of the game flow play a component, but as a ‘back of a beermat’ calculation it seems to give you a rough concept within a couple of blind levels about when you can anticipate to finish up.
Clearly you can only do this estimation when you know how many players are going to acquire-in, but you can do a relatively excellent prediction here by looking at the assure on the prize pool. It is really rare that an operator routinely gets their guarantees incorrect and most schedules are tweaked all the time.
If you go back to the Sunday Million from this weekend you would have been one hundred% precise using this strategy. $1,000,000 assured in a $one hundred+$9 occasion would be a field of ten,000. (10,000 players x ten,000 chips)/100 brings you to a huge blind of 1,000,000, which is precisely when the tournament ended right after an overlay.
So next time you are contemplating an early night but also fancy a rapid game of poker, this calculation could save you from ending up playing till 3AM just to get a two get-in min money.
Is it critical for you to know the end time of tournaments? Let us know in the comments: